Campaign: Electoral College Analysis
It does sound unlikely that Obama could carry Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. That sounds bad, of course, but consider McCain's: A) inability to campaign well; B) inability to raise money; C) inarticulateness in debates; D) the "real Republicans'" ambivalence about him; E) his immigration stance. Lately, it looks like he's even trying to distance himself from Bush positions on Iraq ("Out by 2013!" McCain said -- who believes that?) and global warming.
The most important factor is McCain's age -- not that him being old means he's too old to be President, but that he's too old to raise the money and create the campaign energy necessary to get elected. George W. Bush could campaign. Bob Dole had no chance -- he was running against Bill Clinton.
The old Reagan rule applies: looking on paper, the analysts of the day said, "He can't win." But others said, "People just like this guy."
If Obama can outspend McCain and control the national debate with the unyielding "Hope" and "Yes We Can" message that created the base for him to defeat Hillary Clinton, then he should win. Think about it -- Hillary is a stronger candidate and campaigner than McCain.
No profanes - sacred